In contrast, air rises in the western Pacific, causing clouds and a lot of rainfall in the western Pacific. Air is descending in the eastern Pacific, creating stable and dry weather conditions. The image below from NOAA Climate shows the typical circulation during a negative ENSO ocean event. Large-scale pressure changes are observed in the tropics as ENSO phases arise and reach their peak. The main analysis and forecasts are focused on the nix of both regions, marked as Nino 3.4.ĮNSO has a major influence on the tropical rainfall patterns (storms) and the complex exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. The main regions are 3 and 4 and cover a large part of the tropical Pacific. Typically there is a phase change in around 1-3 years.īelow we have an image that shows all the ENSO regions in the equatorial Pacific. It is a region of the tropical Pacific ocean, changing between warm and cold phases in the equatorial ocean. That is short for “El Niño Southern Oscillation”. Over the Northern Hemisphere, this upcoming Summer season will be under the influence of a now well-known Ocean anomaly.Ī major driver of the cold season was the ENSO. Seasonal forecasting focuses on large-scale pressure systems and the jet stream positioning with the weather pattern. Global weather is a very complex system, with many large-scale and small-scale factors. When trying to understand any weather season and the long-range forecasts, we must realize that there are many global drivers that can shape it. The Summer forecast from major weather models captures this jet stream pattern, revealing a very hot and dry summer developing for parts of the United States and Europe. The Summer season of 2022 will be under the continued influence of the La Nina, as the jet stream pattern over North America and the Pacific Ocean shows.
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